TRQ for Considering Interventions
What sorts of interventions are known to be effective? Thought to be effective? What are the likely 1st and 2nd order effects of each?
Cost/Benefit analysis. Costs should be in terms of the Four Moneys [link] (currency, time, ass-pain, integrity) and should be compared to the opportunity costs for those resources. What are the load-bearing assumptions for each analysis?
Cost estimates should be multiplied by uncertainty and by process elements outside of your control.
Benefit estimates should be discounted by uncertainty and adjusted by likely second-order effects.
Compare all to the cost of doing nothing, and to the cos/benefit analysis of other potential courses of action. DON’T OVER-QUANTIFY.
Attempt to resolve uncertainty that spans the net-positive/net-negative bound using limited prototype-y experiments.
Proceed, continuing to track non-sunk costs and benefits, and to update uncertainty and track load-bearing assumptions.
Afterwards, evaluate, learn, and share.